How Does It Work – Truckee Meadows Covid Risk Meter

How Does It Work?

The Truckee Meadows COVID Risk Meter was created by a local team of doctors, health experts, leaders, and scientists to help synthesize data and information about COVID-19 in our Northern Nevada community, and to empower residents to make personal decisions about their own behavior based on easy-to-understand information.

The Risk Meter consists of both a daily score and a weekly setting. The daily score is updated every day during the week and describes COVID data conditions for any given day. The weekly gauge describes how these conditions have manifest over the past seven days. The risk meter weekly gauge is updated every Monday.

Along with updating the weekly gauge setting on Monday evenings – we provide a seven-day prediction and estimate of next Monday’s setting using our prediction model.

Understanding the COVID Risk Meter Site

The risk meter’s weekly setting is updated every Monday based on the data and daily scores from the previous 7 days. The medical professionals on the Risk Meter team recommended an approach that was quick to react to escalating COVID conditions and more conservative when downgrading risk.

The Weekly Risk Meter

The protocol for setting the gauge each Monday is as follows:

Increase risk setting: If at least three of the previous seven days have a daily model score higher than the current setting then the risk level is increased.

Decrease risk setting: If at least 5 of the previous seven days have a daily model score lower than the current setting then the risk level is decreased.

Stable risk setting: Neither condition above is met and the meter remains at its current setting.

MODERATE

What The Weekly Rating Means

Risk of Community Spread

Wear masks in public unless fully vaccinated.
Respect rules inside businesses and schools you visit.
Pay attention to handwashing with soap and water.

The Weekly Rating

Provides behavioral recommendations based on the current risk level.

Daily Cumulative Model Score

The Daily Rating

This score is updated every day during the week. Some data are not available over the weekend and thus scores for weekend days are retroactively added on Mondays. The daily score represents an aggregation of data from five official sources describing COVID conditions.

Metrics Used and Score Generation

Data Sources

Daily Scores

5 Metrics Used to Calculate Scores

Demand for Testing
Test Positivity
New COVID Cases Daily
COVID Hospitalizations
Hospital Capacity

7-Day Score Compilation

Every day, each indicator receives a score from 0 – 3 based on the reported data and pre-defined cutoffs. The five indicator scores are added together to report the daily cumulative model score. The minimum daily cumulative score is 0, and the maximum score is 15.

Gauge Setting

Risk Prediction

In addition to tracking data daily and retrospectively analyzing model performance to create a weekly setting the Risk Meter provides a 7-day forecast of predicted daily cumulative model scores. This allows our team to predict what the following Monday’s setting is likely to be.

More About the Risk Meter

Learn More About Our Model Assumptions

Have More Questions?